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Jan 22, 2024
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The $400k Investment Project's avatar

And it doesn't seem to be the way Tesla is moving but:

"in theory, silicon anodes are 10x more energy efficient than industry-standard graphite anodes" so there is certainly room to improve. It's just a question to your point of how long does it take to get there?

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The $400k Investment Project's avatar

I appreciate your thoughts. I'm basing my view in part on Tony Seba's predictions. He's been perhaps the most accurate prognosticators in this space. His 2014 prediction about a 200 mile range - $10k EV was bang on and he was ridiculed at the time. He expects battery technology to be sufficient for commercial air travel (<800miles) by 2030.

I'd be very curious to hear your thoughts on the Tesla Semi given your above comments. My own personal views are that we'll gain significant energy density through new battery technologies sooner rather than later. Silicon anode for example can already produce far better energy densities with current technology.

"Amprius reported a silicon anode battery with a record-high certified energy density of 500 watt-hours per kilogram, about twice that of today’s EV batteries."

I think between the advances being made today and what AI will bring to battery development I'd be shocked if we couldn't match ICE by 2031. I find what Tesla has done with the Tesla Semi pretty impressed again with pretty "basic" battery technology.

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